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Acta Neuropsychiatrica

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Acta Neuropsychiatrica's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Altered Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Self-Referential Processing in Bipolar Disorder

Chen, P.-H.; Duncan, N. W.; Lee, H.-c.; Liu, Y.-J.; Hsu, T.-Y.

2026-09-02 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361790 medRxiv
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Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with persistent social, cognitive, and functional impairment during euthymia, yet the neural mechanisms underlying these deficits remain unclear. Alterations to self-referential processing are a candidate mechanism, but existing electrophysiological studies rely on emotionally valenced paradigms that potentially confound self-processing with emotional biases. Methods: We analysed electroencephalography from 28 patients with bipolar disorder (type I or II) and 28 age- and sex-matched healthy controls during an emotionally neutral colour judgment task with self-related (preference) and non-self-related (similarity) conditions. Late positive potentials, temporal generalisation decoding, and frequency band decoding (theta, alpha, beta) were used to characterise the temporal dynamics and oscillatory correlates of self versus non-self processing. Results: Controls showed higher overall event-related potential amplitudes and greater self versus non-self differentiation than patients (condition by group interaction, 337 to 946 ms). Broadband temporal generalisation decoding revealed extensive cross-temporal generalisation of the self versus non-self representation in controls, spanning most of the trial, but no significant generalisation in patients. Frequency analyses showed that alpha and beta carried self versus non-self information in both groups, with broader extent in controls, and that anterior theta carried this information in patients but not controls. Exploratory correlations linked decoding measures to rumination and anxiety but not to manic symptoms. Conclusions: The neural representation distinguishing self-referential from externally guided processing was both smaller in amplitude and less temporally sustained in bipolar disorder. Reduced persistence is not detectable by conventional amplitude analyses, and may bear on the self-related and social cognitive difficulties reported in this population.

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Adjunctive Psychobiotic Lactiplantibacillus plantarum PS128 Therapy and Escitalopram in Major Depressive Disorder: A 12-Week Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

Ji, Y.; Zhang, J.; Mao, J.; Wang, L.; Wang, K.; Hu, J.; Lou, Z.; Mi, Y.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361081 medRxiv
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Major depressive disorder (MDD) is strongly associated with dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, systemic inflammation, and gut microbiota dysbiosis. Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors such as escitalopram are standard treatments, their efficacy is often constrained by partial response and gastrointestinal adverse effects. In this 12-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we evaluated the clinical efficacy and microecological mechanisms of adjunctive Lactiplantibacillus plantarum PS128 (PS128; 6*1010CFU/day) in MDD patients on stable escitalopram therapy. Adjunctive PS128 significantly enhanced clinical response compared to placebo, yielding substantial reductions in HAMD-17 and MADRS, alongside a higher remission rate. 16S rRNA sequencing and PICRUSt2 profiling revealed that PS128 enriched key short-chain fatty acid producers (Faecalibacterium, Coprococcus), counteracting the Klebsiella expansion seen in placebo. Functionally, PS128 up-regulated neuroprotective cofactor, B vitamins, biosynthesis and down-regulated the neurotoxic kynurenine pathway. Network analysis demonstrated that PS128 maintained a resilient, integrated microbial co-occurrence topology, whereas the placebo network showed structural segregation. This stabilized ecosystem attenuated peripheral inflammatory signaling and normalized salivary cortisol levels. Overall, adjunctive PS128 augments escitalopram efficacy by enhancing gut network stability, supporting cellular energetics, and modulating neuroendocrine activity, offering a promising multimodal strategy for MDD.

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Half of alcohol, drug, and self-harm presentations cannot be identified in coded emergency department data: a diagnostic accuracy study of a large language model

Humphries, C.; Brett, J.; Gruber, F.; James, E.; McKendrick, T. I.; McNairn, K. C.; Miell, A.; O'Brien, R.; Rahman, F.; Schölin, L.; Stewart, M.; Casey, A.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361443 medRxiv
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Objective To measure the accuracy of clinical coding, clinician review, and a locally deployed large language model (LLM) in identifying alcohol, drug, and self-harm involvement in emergency department (ED) attendances, and quantify prevalence. Design Two-phase diagnostic accuracy study. In a validation week, the identification strategies were assessed against a conflict-adjudicated reference standard (n=2,256); the LLM was then applied to n=105,096 annual attendances at the same site. Setting UK Type 1 Emergency Department treating patients [&ge;]16yrs. Main outcome measures Prevalence quantification compared with the reference standard; sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of each strategy; monthly identification rates and adjusted annual prevalence. Results The reference standard identified 12.1% of attendances as involving alcohol, drugs, or self-harm (coding 6.0%; clinician 10.0%, LLM 15.6%). LLM balanced accuracy matched or outperformed clinician review in all three domains (alcohol 0.942 v 0.930, p=0.635; drug 0.959 v 0.791, p<0.001; self-harm 0.982 v 0.908, p=0.004). Coding recorded 1.07 domains per identified patient against 1.32 in the reference standard. Adjusted annual prevalence corresponded to 12,890 domain involvements per year not identifiable in coded data. Subdomain classification found at least 81.6% of self-harm attendances required medical assessment for injury or overdose before psychiatric review. Conclusions Clinical coding identified fewer than half of presentations involving alcohol, drugs, and self-harm and rarely captured co-occurring domains; under-recording was present across a full year. A locally deployed LLM generated more complete structured data from existing clinical text within NHS infrastructure, at a scale which is not feasible for manual review.

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In Vitro Ketamine Attenuates Immune Sensitization in Major Depressive Disorder in a Concentration-Dependent Manner

Zhang, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Niu, M.; Chen, T.; Luo, Y.; Luo, Y.; Almulla, A. F.; Carvalho, A. F.; Maes, M.; Li, J.

2026-09-02 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361493 medRxiv
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Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a severe mental illness associated with severe clinical consequences and substantial societal burden. It's characterized by immune-inflammatory dysregulation and immune sensitization. Objective: To determine whether in vitro ketamine attenuates phytohemagglutinin (PHA)/lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced immune sensitization in patients with MDD and healthy controls (HCs). Methods: Whole blood from 18 patients with MDD and 18 HCs was stimulated with PHA/LPS and exposed to ketamine (0.3 M, 0.6 M, and 6 M) for 72 hours. Cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and composite immune profiles, including M1/M2 macrophages, T helper (Th)1/2/17, the immune-inflammatory response system (IRS), and compensatory immunoregulatory system (CIRS), were synthesized and determined. Results: Under PHA and LPS stimulation in vitro, the MDD group exhibited markedly elevated immune profiles, including M1, M2, Th1, Th2, Th17, IRS, CIRS, chemokines, and growth factors, consistent with immune sensitization. Significant group-by-treatment interactions were observed for Th1-Th2, M2, growth factors, IL-12(p70), M1, and chemokines. Ketamine produced minimal changes in HCs but broader suppression in MDD, particularly at the highest concentration, without normalizing the sensitized immune phenotype. Among the immune markers with no notable group-by-treatment interactions, ketamine exerted diagnosis-independent effects, decreasing MIP-1{beta}, IL-1&{beta}, Th1, TNF-{beta} IRS, IFN-{gamma}, and IL-2 compared to the control condition. Conclusions: Ketamine exhibited two distinct immunoregulatory patterns: selective, disease-dependent attenuation of sensitized immune pathways and broader, diagnosis-independent suppression of the stimulated immune response, predominantly at higher concentrations. However, these effects were insufficient to normalize the immune-sensitized phenotype of MDD.

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Body mass index modifies symptom-specific metabolomic associations with depressive symptoms in the Estonian Biobank

Kurvits, S.; Taba, N.; Estonian Biobank research team, ; Milani, L.; Haller, T.; Lehto, K.

2026-09-03 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361909 medRxiv
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Background: Metabolomic studies of depression have yielded heterogeneous findings, potentially because metabolic correlates differ across symptoms and metabolic states. We examined symptom-specific metabolomic associations and whether body mass index (BMI) modifies these relationships. Methods: We analyzed 83,717 Estonian Biobank participants (70.6% female) with 249 Nightingale metabolite measures and 14 lifetime depressive symptoms. Logistic regression models progressively adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, medication, and BMI factors. BMI-related attenuation and metabolite x BMI interactions were evaluated, followed by self-organizing map analyses of broader metabolic context. Results: Before BMI adjustment, 660 metabolite-symptom associations were Bonferroni-significant; 136 were significant after BMI adjustment, including 105 retained associations. Weight-related associations showed the strongest BMI dependence: none of 199 weight-gain associations and 2 of 115 weight-loss associations were retained. Among 691 preselected metabolite-symptom pairs, 211 (30.5%) showed significant metabolite x BMI interactions after false discovery rate correction. Six systemic metabolic profiles were identified, but only 3 of 211 BMI-sensitive pairs showed additional profile-dependent heterogeneity. Conclusions: Circulating metabolic correlates of depressive symptoms are heterogeneous and strongly dependent on symptom phenotype and BMI-related metabolic context. These findings suggest that metabolic biomarkers in depression should be interpreted in relation to both symptom presentation and metabolic state rather than as uniform correlates of the disorder.

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Associations of the Patient Safety Screener-3 With Depression and Suicide Risk: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study in Japan

Kiryu, K.; Tamune, H.; Takahashi, K.; Fujikawa, H.; Harada, H.; Fukui, S.; Nagasaki, K.; Nishizaki, Y.; Kato, T.; Tokuda, Y.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361711 medRxiv
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Aim: The Patient Safety Screener-3 (PSS-3) is a brief suicide-risk screening tool. Item 1 of this scale assesses depressive mood but is not included in the total score. We examined the association of item 1 with depressive symptom severity and characterized the suicide-related risk captured by PSS-3 total positivity. Methods: We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional survey among resident physicians in Japan. Associations between PSS-3 item 1 endorsement and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Diagnostic performance of item 1 was evaluated using PHQ-9 positivity ([&ge;]10) as reference standard. We also compared Short-form Scale for Suicide Ideation (SIS-6) scores according to PSS-3 total positivity and PHQ-9 item 9 positivity. Results: A total of 1,844 participants were included. PSS-3 item 1 was endorsed by 443 physicians (24.0%), and 47 (2.5%) met the criteria for PSS-3 total positivity. Item 1 showed 79.3% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity for PHQ-9 positivity. SIS-6 scores were higher in the PSS-3 total-positive group than in the total-negative group (median [IQR], 6 [5-9] vs 0 [0-1]; p<0.001). The SIS-6 showed a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Youden index using PSS-3 total positivity (AUC, 0.961; optimal cutoff, 3) than PHQ-9 item 9 positivity (AUC, 0.907; optimal cutoff, 2). Discussion: PSS-3 may support brief, simultaneous screening for depressive symptoms and suicide-related risk. Compared with PHQ-9 item 9, PSS-3 may capture a more severe spectrum of suicide-related risk. PSS-3 may facilitate identification of individuals requiring further mental health assessment.

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Substance Use is Not Associated with Antidepressant Response to Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

Chesley, J.; Biernacki, K.; Vanleuven, J.; Doran, J. P.; Yazgan, I.; Yildiz, G.; Gonzalez, D. A.; Wagner, S. Y.; LeBaron, K.; Marrero, E.; Osama, T.; Vandekar, S.; Ward, H. B.

2026-09-03 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361949 medRxiv
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Background: Substance use is common among individuals with depression. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is an effective treatment for depression, but current clinical guidelines have discouraged TMS treatment for individuals with depression and co-occurring substance use given concerns for limited efficacy. However, limited data exists on whether substance use affects response to TMS. Methods: Using electronic health record data from patients who received a standard course of TMS for major depressive disorder at an academic medical center, we investigated associations between substance use frequency and response to TMS, defined as change in Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores. Substance use frequency was extracted for alcohol, cannabis, nicotine, stimulants, benzodiazepines, opioids, inhalants, psychedelics, and other drugs. We performed ANCOVA and multiple regression analyses to predict change in PHQ-9 score based on substance use frequency, controlling for pre-TMS PHQ-9 score, age, sex, and number of TMS sessions received. Results: We extracted data from 219 TMS courses. Alcohol was the substance used most commonly (34.2%), followed by prescription benzodiazepines (28.3%), and prescription stimulants (21.0%). Across all substance categories, substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05, Cohens d=0.00 to 0.30). In multiple regression models to compare individual levels of substance use frequency (e.g., daily use vs. no use), level of substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05). The range of plausible effects of substance use frequency on PHQ-9 change was generally below the minimal clinically important difference for PHQ-9, suggesting substance use was unlikely to have a meaningful clinical effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Conclusions: Low to moderate substance use does not have a clinically significant effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Low-level substance use should not exclude individuals with depression from receiving TMS.

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Epigenetic and Immunometabolic Signatures of Suicidal Behavior in Major Depressive Disorder

SHA, Q.; Escobar Galvis, M. L.; Madaj, Z.; Fu, Z.; Sheldon, R. D.; Cave, T.; Adams, M.; Isaguirre, C.; Smart, L.; Kassien, J.; Triche, T.; Fondufe-Mittendorf, Y.; Youssef, N. A.; Achtyes, E. D.; Mann, J. J.; Brundin, L. C.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361547 medRxiv
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Suicidal behavior results from complex behavioral and biological changes. Previous cross-sectional studies indicate that proinflammatory immunobiological factors are often increased in close temporal proximity to a suicide attempt. Suicidal individuals may also exhibit a biological trait vulnerability to stress and inflammation, due to persistent epigenetic modifications. We enrolled 130 individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), 83 with suicidal behavior at intake, and followed them for 12 months with up to eight clinical assessments. Quantification of plasma inflammatory markers and metabolites was performed by high-sensitivity electrochemiluminescence and Ultra High-Performance-Liquid-Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS), respectively. Epigenetic changes were identified using Illumina EPIC arrays. We identified 15 genes with altered DNA-methylation associated with suicidal behavior and attempts at baseline. Childhood trauma predicted lifetime suicide attempts and was associated with altered methylation of seven genes. Increased neutrophils and lower plasma serotonin at baseline predicted future suicide attempts over the following year (neutrophil estimate = 0.42, P = 0.016; serotonin OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.39-1.13). Utilizing biomarkers from baseline and epigenetic data from the genes with highest predictive values (STBD1 ,PRDM8, and TRIM15), we achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 for suicide attempts over the year. Suicidal behavior in MDD was associated with specific epigenetic signatures. Several of the identified genes, such as MAD1L1, have been implicated in psychiatric disease, suicidal behavior and the immune response. These findings support the usefulness of epigenetic and immunometabolic blood markers for identifying suicidal individuals in clinical settings, potentially enhancing preventative efforts.

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Multiday rhythms shape mood dynamics in depression

Sekar, N. P.; Fan, J. M.; Sellers, K. K.; Astudillo Maya, D.; Tremblay-McGaw, A.; Becker, N.; Le Berre, A.; Allawala, A.; Hamlat, E.; Sugrue, L. P.; Rao, V. R.; Krystal, A. D.; Chang, E. F.; Khambhati, A. N.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361076 medRxiv
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Mood fluctuations in major depressive disorder are difficult to anticipate. The biological neural rhythms that organize mood dynamics over days to weeks remain unknown. In individuals implanted with a chronic neural sensing and stimulation device for treatment-resistant depression, we collected years-long intracranial neural recordings alongside daily mood ratings. Both mood and limbic neural activity fluctuated cyclically with multiday (multidien) periodicities of 2-34 days. An individual's daily phase position within mood cycles tracked depression severity, distinguishing whether symptoms were rising, peaking, or resolving. Neural rhythms led mood cycles and forecast an individual's mood trajectory up to 30 days in advance, outperforming models based on raw neural activity. Electrical stimulation reshaped these rhythms, shifting individuals away from the peak-depression phase of their multidien cycle. Our results identify multidien rhythms as an organizing principle of mood in depression and a forecastable, modifiable target for chronotherapeutic neuromodulation.

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Molecular Underpinnings of Retinal Traits 1 Shared with Major Psychiatric Disorders

Jaholkowski, P.; Parker, N.; Sveen, I. O.; Wistrom, E. D.; Fominykh, V.; Szabo, A.; Parekh, P.; Frei, O.; Smeland, O. B.; O'Connell, K. S.; Djurovic, S.; Dale, A. M.; Shadrin, A. A.; Andreassen, O. A.

2026-09-03 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361809 medRxiv
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Recent large-scale studies have enabled new knowledge about genetic underpinnings of morphological and electrophysiological alterations of the retina. Variation in retinal traits, often of neurodevelopmental origin, have been linked to major psychiatric disorders (MPDs). Here, we investigate the genetic overlap between MPDs and key retinal traits to identify underlying molecular mechanisms. We obtained genome-wide associations studies data for bipolar disorder (BD), major depression (MD), schizophrenia (SCZ), and the retinal traits retinal nerve fibre layer thickness (RNFL), ganglion cell inner plexiform layer thickness (GCIPL), and vertical cup-disc ratio (VCDR). We estimated the number of trait-influencing variants shared between traits with MiXeR and identified shared genetic loci with condFDR. Subsequently, we examined the biological pathways of the genes mapped to shared loci. This revealed that GCIPL shared the most genetic variants with MPDs (~60%), followed by RNFL (~40%), and VCDR (~20%). The genetic variants shared between retinal traits and MPDs showed disorder-specific patterns with more pronounced overlaps of SCZ and BD with RNFL, and MD negatively correlated with GCIPL. Gene-pathway analysis highlighted the importance of GABAergic neurotransmission and a two-stage neurodevelopmental process in SCZ, whereas the role of mitochondria and a weaker developmental component were observed in BD. The results also implicated synaptic functioning and gene-expression processes in MD. Furthermore, polygenic analysis suggested that the genetic architecture of retinal traits can distinguish between MPDs. Our findings indicate shared genetic underpinnings between retinal traits and SCZ, BD, and MD, implicating altered neurodevelopment and neurotransmission underlying the retinal link to major psychiatric disorders.

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Persistence of psychotic experiences and clinical outcomes in adolescents at familial high risk of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder: The Danish High Risk and Resilience Study

Rohd, S. B.; Thorup, A. A.; Wilms, M.; Schiavon, M.; Streyma, D. H. B.; Laursen, A. F.; Bundgaard, A. F.; Sondergaard, A.; Krantz, M. F.; Veddum, L.; Hjorthoj, C.; Greve, A.; Mors, O.; Nordentoft, M.; Hemager, N.; Gregersen, M.

2026-09-01 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361507 medRxiv
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Objective: This study examined the prevalence of psychotic experiences (PE) and how early onset and persistence of PE contribute to risk and severity of mental disorders in adolescents at familial high-risk of schizophrenia (FHR-SZ) or bipolar disorder (FHR-BP) and adolescents from a population-based control group (PBC). Methods: This is the second follow-up of a nationwide cohort study including 522 children at FHR-SZ (N=202), FHR-BP (N=120), and PBC (N=200). Participants were assessed at ages 7, 11, and 15 using a semi-structured interview to evaluate PE and mental disorders. Results: At age 15, adolescents at FHR-SZ reported more PE than PBC over the past six months (current) and the past four years, while adolescents at FHR-BP only reported more current PE. PE reported at two or three timepoints (persistent PE) predicted any Axis I disorder in mid-adolescence, corresponding to three- (OR 2.9, 95% CI [1.5-5.7]) and 21-fold (OR 21.4, 95% CI [2.8-162.3]) increased risks, respectively. Persistent PE also predicted multimorbidity, with three- (OR 2.8, 95% CI [1.0-7.6]) and four-fold (OR 4.1, 95% CI [1.2-14.1]) increased risks, respectively. This was after adjustment for sex, early mental disorders, and familial risk. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a strong link between persistent PE and mid-adolescence mental disorders. Our findings emphasize PE as important risk markers for mental disorders during mid-adolescence and highlight the importance of monitoring children with PE before age 7 who develop persistent symptoms.

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Cerebrospinal Fluid Myeloperoxidase Is Associated With Putamen Volume Beyond Neurofilament Light in Huntington's Disease

Clemsen, J. D.; Bockholt, H. J.; Adams, W. H.; Baker, B. T.; Bolton, J. L.; Calhoun, V. D.; Paulsen, J. S.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361663 medRxiv
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Background: The primary neuroanatomical site of Huntington-s disease (HD) pathology resides in the striatum and its atrophy identifies important disease progression from HD-ISS Stage 0 to Stage 1. Immune-associated proteins may capture variation in HD that is incompletely represented by markers of neuroaxonal injury. Objectives: To determine whether cerebrospinal-fluid myeloperoxidase contributes information about striatal volume loss beyond genetic disease burden and neurofilament light. Methods: Cross-sectional data from 88 persons with HD were analyzed. Cerebrospinal-fluid myeloperoxidase and neurofilament light were measured with a nucleic acid-linked immunosandwich assay. Normalized putamen volume was derived from structural magnetic resonance imaging. Linear regression adjusted for genetic disease burden and sex. Results: Higher neurofilament light was associated with smaller normalized putamen volume (standardized {beta} = -0.322, (P=.0066)). Higher myeloperoxidase was associated with larger normalized putamen volume after adjustment for genetic disease burden, sex, and neurofilament light (standardized {beta} = 0.183, (P=.0386)). Adding myeloperoxidase increased explained variance in striatal loss. Conclusions: Cerebrospinal fluid myeloperoxidase contributed modest incremental information about striatal volume in this cross-sectional sample. Independent longitudinal studies are needed to determine its biological source, temporal behavior, and potential biomarker value. Findings advance efforts to characterize multicomponent biological markers of HD.

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Longitudinal Brain Correlates of Cognitive Performance in Early Psychosis

Mignondje, K. A.; Connolly, J. G.; Beermann, A.; Crabtree, E.; Vandekar, S.; Roeske, M. J.; Biernacki, K.; Coleman, M. J.; Shenton, M. E.; Brady, R. O.; Lewandowski, K. E.; Ward, H. B.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361680 medRxiv
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Background: Cognitive impairment is the leading cause of disability in schizophrenia with limited treatments. A major barrier to treatment development is the absence of reproducible, mechanistically grounded neural targets. Cross-sectional studies have identified dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC)-somatomotor connectivity as a neural marker of cognitive performance on the Auditory Continuous performance task (ACPT), a measure of attention. To test the stability of this marker, we tested the relationship between DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity and ACPT performance in a longitudinal psychosis sample. Methods: Individuals with early psychosis (n=251) and matched controls (n=90) were enrolled and underwent resting-state neuroimaging and neurocognitive assessment. A subset completed longitudinal assessments over 2-4 years. We calculated DMPFC-somatomotor resting-state functional connectivity using a previously identified DMPFC region and a seed in the somatomotor cortex. We performed linear mixed effects models to predict ACPT performance based on connectivity, time, psychosis type, and their interaction. Results: In the psychosis sample, time (p=.0037) and affective psychosis diagnosis (p<.0001) predicted better ACPT performance. In a model predicting ACPT performance, we observed a significant interaction effect of DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity*psychosis subtype (p=.0079) such that DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity predicted ACPT performance only in individuals with non-affective psychosis (p=.0051). We then tested the specificity of this connectivity-cognitive performance relationship. In a model predicting DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity, only ACPT performance (p=.017), but not fluid cognition, was a significant predictor. Conclusions: DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity is longitudinally associated with cognitive performance in early psychosis. This relationship is strongest in nonaffective psychosis, suggesting a novel, reliable target for intervention for cognitive deficits in early psychosis.

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AURORA: Analysing and understanding responses to oncological regimens with artificial intelligence

Lebmeier, A.; Lindner, T.; Karl, C.; Schöler, T.; Rank, A.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361778 medRxiv
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Background: Immunochemotherapy (ICT) is considered standard in regards to care for small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) in extensive stages, yet reliable biomarkers for treatment response remain elusive. While previous univariate analyses suggest specific peripheral lymphocyte subsets correlate with survival, the systemic immune response involves complex, multivariate interactions that require advanced analytical approaches. Methods: This paper analysed high-dimensional flow cytometry data from 32 patients with stage IV SCLC treated with carboplatin, etoposide, and atezolizumab. Peripheral blood was analysed at baseline (V0) and longitudinally during treatment. To identify potential early predictive biomarkers and mitigate sample attrition in later cycles, we focused on baseline and measurements after two cycles of ICT (V1). We employed a rigorous machine learning framework utilising nested cross-validation, bootstrapping, and permutation-based statistical testing to evaluate eleven different regression and survival models. Results: Under model-appropriate metrics, regressors did not generalise (R2 <0); conversely, censoring-aware Random Survival Forests (RSF) successfully extracted robust prognostic signatures. Baseline immune profiles (V0) achieved a concordance index (C-index) of 0.66 (p= 0.015), while dynamic changes from V0 to V1 ({triangleup}V) achieved a C-index of 0.65 (p= 0.022). Crucially, absolute values measured after two cycles of ICT (V1) yielded no significant signal (p= 0.445). Feature importance analysis confirmed the prognostic value of Th17 normalisation and identified Naive Regulatory T cells and Memory B cells as candidate components. Conclusion: Machine learning validation confirms a predictive signal in the peripheral immune profile of SCLC patients. Early dynamic shifts in the balance between regulatory and effector immune arms are associated with prognosis, contrasting with the lack of signal in absolute counts after two cycles of ICT. These findings establish a proof of concept for multivariate liquid biopsy immune profiling, warranting confirmation in larger cohorts and highlighting the necessity of integrating systemic and tumour-intrinsic data.

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New tests for trials of very few patients using longitudinal data - a case-study in Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxias

Hendrickx, N.; Mentre, F.; Karlsson, M. O.; Hooker, A. C.; Traschütz, A.; Schüle, R.; PROSPAX Consortium, ; EVIDENCE-RND Consortium, ; Synofzik, M.; Comets, E.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361588 medRxiv
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We propose two new tests to detect drug effects (DE) in trials of one to very few patients followed during two periods (before and after initiation of a treatment). Both methods use longitudinal natural history data to inform the estimation of each patient's DE. The first method uses a non linear mixed effect model (NLMEM) reflecting an expected natural history with a hypothetical drug effect, to estimate the Conditional Distribution of the Drug Effect (CDDE). The second method trains a Pareto Depth Analysis (PDA) algorithm, a machine learning based approach based on outlier detection, that we implement using data simulated under the NLMEM. We evaluated the two tests with a simulation study. We used data from the PROSPAX study in Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxias (ARCAs, to derive a NLMEM for the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia score. The CDDE method provided controlled type I error and, in some scenarios, adequate corrected power, though sensitivity analyses showed vulnerability to misspecification. The PDA method demonstrated lower statistical power except with high score precision. These results highlight different strategies for quantifying treatment effects in ultra rare, patient' specific trials. They can inform methodological design for future ARCA precision therapies.

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Temporal Clustering of Acute Neurological Disorders: Testing the Clinical Impression of Diagnostic 'Theme Shifts'

Haertel, L. A. L.; Jaeger, A.; Riethues, F.; von Itter, J.; Lee, H.; Hause, S.; Meuth, S.; Schmidt-Pogoda, A.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361586 medRxiv
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Background: On-call clinicians frequently report the anecdotal impression of 'theme shifts' during which specific acute neurological diagnoses appear to cluster. Whether such clustering reflects a statistically true and reproducible phenomenon has not been systematically investigated; the present paper examines seasonality and temporal clustering within six different acute neurological conditions. Methods: In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, we identified all patients admitted to a tertiary neurological department between July 2016 and June 2026 with acute unilateral vestibulopathy, cerebral artery dissection, generalized epileptic seizures, primary intracerebral hemorrhage, peripheral facial nerve palsy, or transient global amnesia (TGA) (n = 2,140). Monthly and seasonal distributions were assessed using chi-squared goodness-of-fit and cosinor analysis. Short-term temporal clustering was tested by Monte Carlo permutation across time windows from 24 hours to 90 days, and endogenous cluster dynamics were characterized using Hawkes self-exciting point process modeling. Results: Admissions for generalized epileptic seizures showed a statistically significant deviation from a uniform monthly distribution with a winter distribution (p<0.001 and q = 0.002), and a significant temporal clustering across time windows from 72 hours to 90 days (all q < 0.05). Peripheral facial nerve palsy presented significant clustering at the 90-day window (q = 0.029) and TGA at 60-day time window (q = 0.041) without seasonality; the diagnostic groups of acute unilateral vestibulopathy, cerebral artery dissection and primary intracerebral hemorrhage showed neither seasonality nor clustering after correction for multiple comparison. No diagnostic group showed clustering within a 24-hour window, statistically significant self-excitation in Hawkes process modelling, or a significant linear trend in monthly case counts over the study period. Conclusion: The anecdotal impression of diagnostic 'theme shifts' among on-call neurologists appears to have a measurable basis, although clustering is confined to specific conditions and rather on a time scale of weeks to months. Generalized epileptic seizures were the only diagnostic group that uniquely combined seasonality with temporal clustering, suggesting a shared trigger, while facial palsy and TGA showed episodic, yet non-seasonal clustering.

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Big tau and brain-derived tau reveal peripheral and central nervous system involvement in neuropathies

Martin-Aguilar, L.; Gonzalez-Ortiz, F.; Zetterberg, H.; Karikari, T. K.; Suarez-Calvet, M.; Casasnovas, C.; Gutierrez-Gutierrez, G.; Sedano-Tous, M. J.; Pardo-Fernandez, J.; Marquez-Infante, C.; Rojas-Marcos, I.; Jerico-Pascual, I.; Martinez-Hernandez, E.; Moris de la Tassa, G.; Dominguez-Gonzalez, C.; Sevilla, T.; Pelayo, A. L.; Rojas-Garcia, R.; Collet-Vidiella, R.; Codes-Mendez, H.; Caballero-Avila, M.; Tejada-Illa, C.; Lleixa, C.; Riesco-Navarro, G.; Blanco-Sanroman, N.; Mederer-Fernandez, T.; Panicot-Buj, L.; Pascual-Goni, E.; Vidal-Jordana, A.; Blennow, K.; Kvartsberg, H.; Querol, L.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361202 medRxiv
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INTRODUCTION: Biomarkers for monitoring disease activity and treatment response in peripheral neuropathies remain limited. Big tau, a high-molecular-weight isoform of tau, is predominantly expressed in the peripheral nervous system (PNS). We investigated serum levels of big tau, brain-derived tau (BD-tau), and neurofilament light chain (NfL) in peripheral neuropathies, multiple sclerosis (MS), Alzheimer disease (AD), and healthy controls (HC). METHODS: Ultra-sensitive blood-based assays run on an HD-X Single Molecule Array analyser (Quanterix) were used to measure big tau and BD-tau in serum from patients with Guillain-Barr&eacute syndrome (GBS, n=81), Miller Fisher syndrome (MFS, n=20), Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT, n=102), chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP, n=43), MS (n=159), AD (n=20), and HC (n=41). NfL was measured in patients with neuropathies using an SR-X Single Molecule Array analyser (Quanterix). RESULTS: Serum big tau levels were higher in GBS than in AD (11.4 vs 2.4 pg/mL, p<0.0001) and MS (11.4 vs 9.0 pg/mL, p=0.01), and similar to CIDP and CMT. Contrarily, serum BD-tau levels in GBS were higher than in CIDP (3.0 vs 2.3 pg/mL, p=0.006) and MS (3.0 vs 1.7 pg/mL, p<0.0001), but similar to CMT, and lower than in AD (3.0 vs 9.8 pg/mL, p<0.0001). Serum NfL levels were higher in GBS than in CIDP (32.5 vs 13.0 pg/mL, p=0.0002), CMT (32.5 vs 12.3 pg/mL, p<0.0001), and HC (32.5 vs 7.6 pg/mL, p<0.0001). Compared with GBS, MFS patients showed higher BD-tau (12.7 vs 3.0 pg/mL, p=0.003), lower big tau (5.4 vs 11.4 pg/mL, p=0.002), and higher NfL levels, although the latter did not reach statistical significance (118.3 vs 32.5 pg/mL, p=0.16). The NfL/big tau ratio was significantly higher in MFS than in GBS, CIDP, and CMT. In GBS, BD-tau correlated with early clinical severity (MRC at 1 week; I-RODS at 4 weeks; maximum GBS-DS and GBS-DS at 4 weeks), whereas neither tau biomarker showed long-term clinical correlations. Higher BD-tau and big tau levels were associated with the need for mechanical ventilation (BD-tau: 8.6 vs 2.9 pg/mL, p=0.019; big tau: 19.7 vs 10.7 pg/mL, p=0.007), while higher BD-tau levels were associated with mortality (10.9 vs 2.9 pg/mL, p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Higher big tau levels in peripheral neuropathies than in CNS diseases support its role as a PNS-specific biomarker. In MFS, increased serum BD-tau, reduced big tau, and an elevated NfL/big tau ratio suggest CNS involvement with relative preservation of the PNS.

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RedFuMOS: A novel approach for multi-omics and clinical data-driven patient stratification

De Luca, S.; Fava, C.; Rizzo, G.; Visconti, A.; Berchialla, P.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361415 medRxiv
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Background. Patient stratification from multi-omics and clinical data is essential for uncovering disease heterogeneity and moving toward more personalized treatment strategies. However, integrating heterogeneous data layers while identifying robust patient strata remains challenging. Methods. We introduce Reduced Fusion of Multi-Omics Stratification (RedFuMOS), a novel three-step approach for patient stratification based on mixed-type multi-omics data. RedFuMOS extends Similarity Network Fusion to accommodate mixed-type data layers and layer-specific similarity measures for data integration, includes a dimensionality reduction step to mitigate the curse of dimensionality, and performs patient stratification using density-based hierarchical clustering with HDBSCAN. It also implemented an automated optimization procedure to identify the best set of hyperparameters, minimizing the need for manual tuning. Results. RedFuMOS outperformed six state-of-the-art tools for multi-omics patient stratification in a comprehensive simulated benchmarking study, which also confirmed that, although computationally expensive, the dimensionality reduction step is crucial for achieving good stratification performance. Additionally, RedFuMOS identified two clinically relevant patient strata in a small real-world cohort of patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukaemia. Conclusion. RedFuMOS provides a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous multi-omics and clinical data. RedFuMOS is available as an R package at http://github.com/delucasara/RedFuMOS.

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Machine learning analysis of Autism phenotype data supports a four-dimensional continuum with three overlapping subtypes

Quigley, H.; Gardiner, B.; McDaid, L.; O'Donnell, C.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361561 medRxiv
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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition defined by differences in social communication and restricted, repetitive behaviours. As diagnostic criteria have broadened, ASD is now recognised across a wider range of individuals, raising key questions about its structure: does ASD have discrete sub-types, or is it better conceptualised as a continuous, possibly multidimensional, condition? We aim to explore whether a multidimensional continuum model more accurately captures the variability within ASD. We analysed a large SPARK phenotypic dataset of medical history and diagnostic surveys (background history, SCQ, RBS-R; n=36,710 individuals). We apply and compare two traditional statistical approaches, Factor Analysis and Gaussian Mixture Models, with a modern machine learning technique, the Variational Autoencoder (VAE). VAEs reconstructed unseen test data with ~4-fold better accuracy than Factor Analysis, and ~8-fold better accuracy than Gaussian Mixture Models. We identified four stable latent factors across 100 independently trained VAEs. These four dimensions provide an individual behavioural profile that can be visualized using radar-plots, offering a compact way to compare profiles at the person level. Through further analysis, we found evidence for 3 overlapping clusters or subtypes of ASD identified within the 4D latent space. This work aims to inform new ways of modelling ASD using a VAE that will be able to discern between a continuum or a clustered output and that go beyond binary diagnosis, instead reflecting the complex range of trait profiles, with implications for personalised diagnosis and intervention.

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Development of a new trauma dataset over 38 years from the Young Finns Study

Saarinen, A.; Asikainen, T.; Lehtimäki, T.; Raitakari, O.; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361417 medRxiv
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Background: Previous trauma research includes many limitations, such as the scarcity of pretraumatic health measurements and assessment of traumatic experiences with a broad scope across the lifespan. To respond to these gaps, we aimed to develop a new, prospective, population-based trauma dataset from childhood to middle age. Methods: We used the Young Finns Study that is a population-based, multi-generational, prospective study (n = 3596 for the main generation). It has started in 1980 (baseline assessment) and includes follow-ups in 1983, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2007, 2011/2012, and 2018-2020. From the 38-year follow-up and ten measurement points of the YFS, we collected all relevant trauma variables, including both free-format and structured questions that both the participants and their parents responded to. By a data-driven case-to-case analysis, we developed a scale to numerically capture variation in the quality of the experiences. Results: Our final dataset captured a total of 7769 traumatic experiences. We also developed the Traumatic Experience Severity Scale (TESS), including six subscales such as shamefulness, rarity, danger to life or health, effects on everyday life, human-made physical threat, and whether the target person was within or outside one's household. We also preprocessed the dataset to be later easily interleaved with other psychological, cardiovascular, and epigenetic variables of the YFS. Conclusions: We believe this new trauma dataset with thousands of experiences across the lifespan provides new opportunities to multidisciplinary, lifelong trauma research.